Fairbanks Running Race Converter
The following form uses race results from 2005–2023 (2020 and 2021 not included due to the COVID-19 pandemic) to predict race pace from one race to another. You can read about how I developed the models in this blog post.
Choose the first race you have already run, then another race you'd like a pace estimate for. Enter your age and gender and a predicted pace for the second race should appear.
The model values at the bottom show how many runners ran both of the races in my data set, and the R² value indicates how much of the variation in the estimated pace is explained by the model. An R² of 1 would mean the model is a perfect match to the data, and 0 would mean no relationship.
The scatterplot at the bottom shows the linear relationship between the two race paces. The blue line is the linear fit (not including gender or age) along with the standard errors. The reddish line is the 1:1 relationship between races. Points above the line represent runners that were slower on the second race than the first, those below are the reverse. Marginal plots show the distribution of the data for each race.